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Learn Chinese In The Next Few Years Or It Will Be Too Late

January 3rd, 2010 - by Huang Jason

(From Wall Street)

How long do we have until China becomes the world’s dominant power? The China bears will tell you that the case is way overstated, and that the real danger is a Chinese economic collapse that will result in a violently aggressive foreign policy. But a recent study by the economist Angus Maddison projects that China will rise to dominance as early as  2015.

As measured by purchasing power parity, China is already catching up.

From Fortune:

Angus Maddison’s forecast (which uses purchasing power parity) isn’t built on outlandish assumptions. He assumes China’s growth will slow way down year by year, and America’s will average about 2.6% annually, which seems reasonable. But because China has grown so stupendously during the past decade, it should still be able to take the crown in just seven more years.

If that happens, America will close out a 125-year run as the No. 1 economy. We assumed the title in 1890 from – guess who. Britain? France? No. The world’s largest economy until 1890 was China’s. That’s why Maddison says he expects China to “resume its natural role as the world’s largest economy by 2015.” That scenario makes sense.

Well, I for one will say “Ni hao ma” to our Mandarin overlords.


6 Responses to “Learn Chinese In The Next Few Years Or It Will Be Too Late”

  1. Jamie (詹浩然) says:

    In my opinion that is great news. I have been learning Mandarin (普通话) for the past two years and I can type it good now. I am getting better and better at speaking it and I am planing on moving to China soon.

  2. Luo Ge says:

    The thought that a non-democracy might become the world’s dominant power is a bit frightening. But, precisely because it is a non-democracy, and true freedom of thought does not exist there, the capacity to become a world leader is lacking in China.

  3. Sean (艺) says:

    First off, at this point who cares if China is a communist country? In theory if properly applied a communist society would be better than a democratic one. (btw, we the US are a republic and there’s a difference). And has China done anything bad to you? Honestly, they’ve taken 50% of a massive population and brought them out of poverty, free education and a national healthcare system. Yeah the government is highly corrupt and I’m less than happy about how they’re raping the environment, but that brings me to my next point (well, I’d also like to point out the US is equally corrupt and our care for the environment is only minimally better).

    China’s decision to welcome capitalism, which has fueled this shift in power on a global-political level also shifts the local political situation. As more people move to the middle class they will have money and money is power. There will come a point that the current government will have to clean up and keep the people happy or a revolt becomes inevitable as they will be backed by the power their newfound wealth has provided them.

  4. YG says:

    iM LOOKING FOR A Dictionary of Ping Ying , where can I get one ?

  5. David Dunn says:

    The real “too late” is too late for an individual to learn effectively. In my experience, people learning a new language are most effective if they start learning early. If you wait until 25 your very late and your chance of success are reduced. If you wait until your 30s you probably don’t have a shot. It’s also highly consequential if you know another similar language. Vietnamese do very well in Chinese. Thais too. Korean are more difficult to predict but they’re probably better than Japanese. As for the rest, generally they’re not good but it depends on the individual of course. I started Chinese at 16 and studied 4 hours a day for 5 years. I was pretty good but I keep learning and kept getting better.

  6. Anonymous says:

    Cinese is a good language, but some people’s brains can’t learn it. It’s true.

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